Day 11 is a roller coaster - The Drama alone is exhausting

Morning dawns with the Parties hopelessly deadlocked as the major players standing their ground, eyeing each other’s moves, as if playing a high stakes game of “chicken”.   The G77 showing strength in solidarity hold fast to the Kyoto protocol as the best legally binding framework for coordinated global action.  The balks. Both procedural as well a substantive issues creating delays.  Everyone back peddles.   Gordon Brown the British PM signals of impending failure at COP15. China says a deal is out of reach. The Danish Presidency issues statement that a comprehensive framework may be unachievable and may have to wait until Mexico City in 2010.  Perhaps we will only get a policy statement after two weeks of talking.

At noon, deliberations are broken into two tracks, one each in line with Kyoto and UN Climate Change Convention, each to draft a proposal and come together later in the day, a procedural move to break the log jam. The US is not in favor of Kyoto stonewalls and pushes China hard on transparency and validation, China pushes back staunchly protecting its sovereignty.  India shares the Chinese position. Reports of near riots on the floor ensue, perhaps better described in UN terms as “heated discussion”.  Late in the afternoon the decision is made, Kyoto is the path.  The US falls in line, the G77 get one of the things they came for.

Targets are discussed and the 2 deg C goal in upheld, although current commitments won’t get us to 3 deg accroding to the scientific models.  The summit remains in crisis.

Hillary Clinton now leading the US delegation, gives strong speech that injects energy into the talks, making a commitment to support a $100B global “fast track”. This is seen a breakthrough on the issue of mitigation financing for LDCs.   Momentum builds.   China and India then make overtures they will open up to independent validation.  A sliver of hope spreads across the city of Copenhagen, perhaps the world. The night wears on.

There is a growing sentiment here at COP15, perhaps more aptly describe as frustration.  Where is the US leadership?  As it appears, it is only they (the US) who can bring the Parties together and exact the compromise needed.

With Obama's arrival, the day ends on thread of hope.