The Door is Open

As heads of state have respond to their official invitations to attend COP15 issued on Nov 13 and we are starting to see the lineup of participants. Along with commitments to participate, carbon emission reduction pledges are being offered by these leaders toward the conference’s overall goal of developing the global framework for the treaty to replace Kyoto 97.

Most notable in recent weeks are the commitments by the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest emitters of CO2. (See table below) Although there is criticism that the pledges made by these two countries are inadequate based on the science as well as commitments made by other nations, these pledges are a significant advance, unlocking the last door and building momentum toward a consensus on emissions targets.

Chinese Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao, will attend the Copenhagen climate talks and has pledged China will cut “emission intensity” relative to economic growth by 40% to 45% by 2020 compared with 2005 levels. President Obama will also attend on December 9th with a pledge of at 17% reduction in emissions in the same time period from the same 2005 level. This is a historic precedent for the U.S. as it traditionally likes to have formal legislative policy in place before agreeing to commitments of this nature. But, with the Kerry-Boxer Bill still in the Senate and unlikely to be voted on before February 2010, bipartisan leaders in Washington have agreed to the 17% reduction goal so to support U.S. negotiators at the Copenhagen bargaining table.

The complexity arises form the fact that other countries use 1990 as their base year not 2005, and not tying the target to “economic growth” as is China. In 1990 terms, the 17% reduction for the U.S. translates into roughly a 4 percent reduction relative to 1990, and China's pledge to cut carbon intensity means an actual increase in emissions. Given the projected expansion of the Chinese economy, emissions will continue to rise for at least the next ten years despite the promise to decrease “emissions intensity. Estimates are that the 40 to 45% cut in carbon intensity amounts to between zero and 12% reductions in actual emissions levels, but translating into a 40% increase in emissions due to overall growth of their economy.

Emission Reduction Pledges By Top 5 Emitters*

Country, Reduction, Baseline Year**

US, 17%, 2005
China*, 40-45%, 2005
Russia, 25%, 1990
Japan, 25%, 1990
India, No Pledge

* Comparison of 2020 Targets & Ranges
** Emission Intensity

While the door is now open to move towards a consensus on targets. large questions still remain, including the financial framework for credits, choice of the baseline year against which specific reduction targets will be measured; the duration of the emissions reductions commitment period; whether or not to call for curbs on deforestation, especially in developing countries’ tropical rainforests; and whether or not to tighten rules governing the methods used to reduce emissions.


The Carbon 20 (C-20)

Total Emissions (excluding land-use)
Units: thousand metric tonnes of carbon dioxide


SOURCE: World Resources Institute. 2003. Carbon Emissions from energy use and cement manufacturing, 1850 to 2000. Available on-line through the Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) at Washington, DC: World Resources Institute