Welcome

The United Nations conference on climate change in Copenhagen (COP15) this coming December will be the most important such meeting since Kyoto 1997. Over 190 nations will gather together to create a framework for a new global climate agreement. The challenge lies in addressing two seemingly irreconcilable goals; getting new commitments for carbon emission reductions in industrialized countries in order to safeguard society while addressing developing economy's needs to grow to raise standards of living and eradicate poverty.

The goal of COP15 is ambitious; to achieve a binding global agreement on greenhouse gas emissions. The issues of the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on climate change garner most of the attention, but is only one piece of the puzzle. Energy security and foreign policy are also top-of-mind issues for delegates, as dependence on foreign-sourced and speculatively-priced energy supplies will not be the best solution for energy and national security in the 21st century. To that end, a binding global agreement which puts a price on carbon, will ultimately reduce market uncertainties and spur investments in clean energy technologies and foster energy independence.

Thus, COP15 is not just about cutting carbon emissions to save the planet, or even about reducing the impact of highly volatile and speculative pricing of critical energy resources, it is most importantly about a nation’s strategic positioning in a future of carbon-constrained growth.

As the date of the conference opening draws near, many nations are jockeying for the leadership position. Japan announced a goal to reduce emissions by 25% of 1990 levels by 2020. Australia and Brazil have also set aggressive new targets. India has softened its position and declared it will not be a deal breaker in Copenhagen. Perhaps the most watched is China.

Having learned its lesson from the Beijing Olympics, China is burnishing its international reputation, while going through rapid and major transformation. It is aggressively investing its economic stimulus funds in renewable technologies and recently became the leading exporter in clean energy technology. Additionally in September, it announced aggressive goals to both reduce carbon emissions and vastly expand its own renewable energy resources. Some would argue China appears to be poised to establish a firm position as the global leader renewable energy technologies and reap the most benefits from the economic recovery and a future of carbon-constrained growth.

Signs in the U.S. are also positive for a better outcome in Copenhagen than in Kyoto. the U.S, enters the negotiations with a strong world position (often referred to as one member the G2 of Climate) along with much stronger and broader base of support from industry and its citizenry. At the same time, our position would be much stronger if we were see signs of a stronger economic recovery and climate legislation is passed in time for Copenhagen. Needless to say there in much work yet to be done on our economic recovery and climate legislation is unlikely to be on the President's desk in time.

In closing, I paraphrase Bill Clinton, “The challenge is whether the 21st century is marred by terrorism, environmental degradation and economic deprivation of all kinds or whether it becomes the most peaceful and prosperous time the world has ever known.”

We face seemingly insurmountable challenges, but as a participant in the COP15, I see great opportunity. Stay tuned.