The United States, Post-Copenhagen: Where do we go from here?

The UN COP15 climate change conference in Copenhagen ended with disappointing results but the challenges to find solutions to mitigation and adaptation continue. The UN process has no formal agenda in the near term and will not likely begin the preparation meetings for COP16 before mid-year.

The focus in the United States leading up to COP16 will be on legislation. With Waxman-Markey off the table, the focus is on the compromise Boxer-Kerry Senate bill.

1. General Cap & Trade or Cap & Trade II - Without binding agreements with specific targets and methods, cap and trade legislation is facing an uphill battle in the United States. (One could argue that a treaty wasn’t achieved in Copenhagen because the U.S. and others didn’t have legislation in place at home prior to the conference.) The Boxer-Kerry bill is seeks to bridge gaps and is looking at coupling cap and trade with new incentives for expanding nuclear power and oil and gas drilling in the United States. Essential elements for Republicans and a lightening rod for Democrats. Look for the messages to focus on national security, energy independence and job creation.
   
2. General Carbon Tax - Anything called tax is unlikely to gain any traction in the U.S. Legislature.
   
3. Limited/Focused Programs - Should general carbon legislation not pass in the U.S. Congress, other alternatives actions include:

• Incentives for Clean Energy - American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009 was approved months ago by the Senate Energy committee encouraging utilities and others to use more alternative, clean energy sources. These programs could be expanded although this approach but alone would not be enough to achieve the 2 degree target.

• Industry Specific Programs - Bringing high carbon industries such as utilities, cement iron and steel up to state of the art technologies and best practices. Such programs would limit emissions in specific high emission industries, while providing funding for R&D in those specific industries. Critics say it's unfair to single out one industry.

• EPA Regulation - The Environmental Protection Agency has begun taking steps to regulate carbon, in case Congress fails to pass legislation. This approach is less comprehensive than legislation and already is being hit with legal challenges.

4. Do Nothing - Do nothing at the national level. Leaving action to the sub-national regions and states. Hope for the best.